Reasoning, uncertainty, and better judgment.

Essays on how people and institutions make errors, miss opportunities, and can build better methods for thinking.

The Now Trap: How Recent Events Distort Our Decisions

Recent events can dominate our judgment, making rare or vivid examples feel more important than the full pattern of evidence.

A reflection on how societies repeatedly lose clarity when information becomes abundant but methods do not keep pace.

A financial assessment of how errors across institutions, industries, and daily life compound into global economic loss.